Methodology
Framework and Data Sources
The dashboard combines current market data, news classification, scenario mapping, and a directional assessment of U.S. Treasury curve implications. Sources and analytical assumptions are presented separately below.
Scope
Scenario weights summarize the relative support for each branch in the current news set. They are normalized analytical weights, not statistically estimated probabilities. Scenario curves illustrate conditional outcomes relative to the current Treasury curve and are not point forecasts.
01 / DATA
Market inputs
Oil prices, Treasury yields, shipping activity, and relevant news are collected from separate market and official-data sources.
02 / NEWS
Classification
Headlines and available article context are assessed for direction and materiality. Duplicate developments are consolidated before weighting.
03 / SCENARIOS
Weighting
Relevant developments are assigned to de-escalation, contained conflict, or escalation using recency, source quality, and fixed-income relevance.
04 / RATES
Transmission
Yield-curve implications are considered through inflation, safe-haven demand, growth expectations, the expected policy path, and term premium.
Analytical process
Market inputs, language classification, scenario weighting, and rates interpretation are handled as separate stages.
| Layer | Role | Output | Constraint |
|---|
| Market data | Supplies observed prices, yields, and shipping activity. | Current state and historical comparison. | Displayed source and as-of time remain visible. |
| News classification | Assesses article context, consolidates duplicate developments, and determines whether the reported action increases or reduces risk. | Direction, scenario assignment, and rationale. | Failed classifications remain unclassified and do not affect scenario weights. |
| Weighting rules | Apply recency, materiality, source quality, fixed-income relevance, and defined geopolitical triggers. | Normalized scenario weights. | Weights are not presented as statistically calibrated probabilities. |
| Rates mapping | Maps each scenario through inflation, growth, safe-haven demand, policy expectations, and Treasury supply. | Directional front-end, belly, long-end, and spread implications. | Scenario paths are conditional illustrations rather than yield targets. |
Yield-curve transmission map
The table summarizes the primary directional channels. Actual curve moves can differ when inflation, growth, policy, and safe-haven effects operate simultaneously.
| Development | Front end | Belly | Long end | Likely curve effect | Primary channel |
|---|
| Oil supply disruption | Yields up | Yields up | Mixed / up | Often steeper, but horizon matters | Inflation expectations and Fed reaction |
| Acute safe-haven demand | Mixed | Yields down | Yields down | Often flatter initially | Flight to quality and growth risk |
| Ceasefire or reopening | Policy-led | Yields down | Modestly down | Usually modest bull flattening | Lower energy premium and term premium |
| Persistent contained conflict | Sticky | Yields up | Yields up | Modest steepening risk | Higher-for-longer policy plus supply |
Assumptions and limitations
The following constraints apply when interpreting scenario weights and curve implications.
- The three scenario paths are hand-specified stress overlays anchored to the observed Treasury curve.
- Scenario weights measure the balance of current evidence; they are not estimated from a historical event-frequency model.
- The framework does not separately estimate expected short rates, inflation compensation, and term premium.
- Curve labels only make sense when the exact spread and time horizon are named.
- News classification can improve evidence quality, but it cannot resolve false reporting or missing information.
- The output is intended for structured discussion and monitoring, not automatic positioning.
Data and reference sources
Official data is used where available, with market widgets providing intraday monitoring.